Dakar 2005: Conference Themes

High Impact Weather Prediction and Predictability

High impact weather prediction and predictability: This joint AMMA-THORPEX research initiative is concerned with improving our knowledge and understanding of the predictability of high impact weather in different regions:

1. over the West African continent (e.g. intense rainfall events, onset and duration of dry/wet spells),
2. the downstream tropical Atlantic (e.g. tropical cyclone genesis and intensity change) and
3. the extratropics (e.g. extratropical transition events, large-scale tropical-extratropical interactions).

In addition to addressing key science issues related to the nature and predictability of these high impact weather events, operational activities will be promoted including

1. Assessment of the impact of additional observations (especially radio-soundings over West Africa) in analysis/forecasting systems for the three regions;
2. Development of targeted observing strategies and
3. Tailoring of forecast products for users.

Coordinators: E. Afiesimama, S. Jones, F. Rabier, C. Thorncroft

Thursday, 1 December
Fourth Plenary: High Impact Weather Prediction and Predictability (Introduction)
Author	Title
Afiesimama, Ernest A., and T. Obidike	On weather forecasting techniques over West African region
DIONGUE-NIANG, Aïda, et Siham SBII	Validation du modèle ALADIN NORAF sur l’Afrique de l’Ouest avec le cas de la genèse du cyclone Cindy
Fontaine, Bernard, and Samuel Louvet	Detection of intraseasonal leading signals for the rainfall onset over the Sudanian and Sahelian belts
Gbuyiro S.O , Orji, B.N and A.O Ediang	Monitoring of Mid Summer Drought in West Africa USING global models
KANE, M. DIOP	Predicting convective systems in West Africa: the experience of JET2000
Lafore, J.-P., N. Asencio, P. Chapelet, F. Favot, M. Nuret, N. Chapelon, Z. Mumba, A. El Majdoub, A. Kamga, A. Hassne, A. Diongue, M. Jidane, S. Milton, A. Ghelli, W. Thiaw, A. Tchouanwo, C. Mari, J.P. Chaboureau, B. Sultan, L. Fairhead, G. Berry	The Dry-run forecasting activities in Summer 05 for AMMA: Elaboration and test of the Forecasting tools, methods and procedures
Laing, Arlene, Richard Carbone, and Vincenzo Levizzani	The diurnal cycle and propagation of precipitating convection in Africa
Mumba, Zilore	PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY OF HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER SYSTEMS
Nuret M., Rabier F., Montmerle T.,Karbou F.	RECENT IMPROVMENT IN DATA ASSIMILATION AT METEO-FRANCE:EMPHASIS ON AMMA REGION
Fourth Poster Session:  High Impact Weather Prediction and Predictability and Prediction of Climate Impacts
High Impact Weather Prediction and Predictability
Berry Gareth, Chris Thorncroft and Tim Hewson	African Easterly Wave lifecycles and diagnostics
Chaboureau, J.-P., C. Mari, and the LA support team	Evaluation of the Meso-NH forecast system during the 2005 AMMA Dry Run
CHABOUREAU, Jean-Pierre, Stéphanie EVAN and Frank ROUX	Numerical Simulation of the 15-17 August 2004 West-African Mesoscale Convective System
Chapelet, P., N. Asencio, M. Nuret and J-P Lafore	A first evaluation of models involved in the AMMA Dry-run forecasting exercise in Summer 05 Monsoon
Correia S., B. Sultan and S. Janicot	Short-lead predictions of intraseasonal oscillations of the convective activity in West Africa
EL MAJDOUB, Ali	Contribution de l'ACMAD au Renforcement des Capacités
Fall, S., D. Niyogi, F. Semazzi, U.C. Mohanty	Application of a numerical weather forecast model for simulating heavy off-season rains and cold temperatures and hazard mitigation planning in Senegal
Guarnieri, Francesca, Massimiliano Pasqui, Lorenzo Genesio and Patrizio Vignaroli	Statistical downscaling for GFS precipitation forecast over Sahel region based on Meteosat Second Generation rainfall estimates
Jenkins, Gregory S., and Sen Chiao	Evaluation of real-time forecasts during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis DRY Runs
KAMGA  F., Andre	Progress towards useful predictions of high impact weather and climate in sub-Saharan Africa
Knippertz, Peter, and Jonathan E. Martin	Extreme precipitation and tropical plumes in West Africa
MBENGUE, Abou Aziz, Aïda DIONGUE NIANG, Chris THORNCROFT	Variabilité et Prédictibilité de la mousson de l’Afrique de l’Ouest
Orji, B.N., and  S.O. Gbuyiro	ON THE BEHAVIOUR OF SOME UPPER AIR PARAMETERS IN RELATION TO WEST AFRICAN LINE SQUALLS (THUNDERSTORMS)
Parsons, D., J.-L. Redelsperger,  Ph. Cocquerez, Ph. Dorbinski, H. Cole, Stéphanie Venel, N. Verdier	The Deployment of Driftsonde for an AMMA-THORPEX Collaboration
Saley Bana Zakari, Tarhule A. Aondover, Lamb J. Peter	RainWatch:  A Geographic Information System for monitoring and visualizing daily rainfall variability in Niger
Prediction of Climate Impacts
Adamou, Salissou, Ibrahim Ousmane	Title not available
Boateng Ampadu, Nick A. Chappell and Wlodek Tych	Changing hydro-climate dynamics across the Ghanaian latitude gradient
Bomblies, Arne	Hydrological determinants of African anopheline populations: Field observations and model development
Challinor, Andrew	Simulating the impacts of climate variability and change on tropical crop yields
Christoph, Michael, and Andreas H. Fink	The IMPETUS Digital Atlas on the AMMA mesoscale Upper Ouémé site
Cournil Ch. et P. Mazzega	Prévention & Remédiation de Crises Socio-Environnementales au Gourma (Mali/Sahel): De la Télédétection Spatiale aux Instruments Juridiques
Dadoum DJEKO Magloire	Title not available
Diop, Mbaye	Sécheresse au Sahel et stratégies d’adaptation des cultures : les leçons du passé
Intsiful, J., F. Allotey, J. Pal, C. Onime, and W. Moufouma-Okia	HARNESSING HUMAN RESOURCES FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH  IN WEST AFRICA
Kangah, Pauline Dibi	Rainfall and Agriculture in Central West Africa since 1930
LOUVET Samuel	Statistical analyses of the impact of climatic parameters on the vectors of Malaria over West-Africa
Mahamane A., Barbier N., Dulieu D., Sinsin B., Saadou M. &  Lejoly J.	Résumé : Impact de la variabilité climatique sur la diversité et la dynamique des communautés végétales de la vallée du fleuve Niger (Parc Régional du W)
Mahé G., Rescan M., Dezetter A., Ardoin S., Dieulin C	Water resources prediction in West and Central Africa for the 21st century
MOUKOLO	Title not available
Muyiolu Salimon Kolawole	Impacts of heat stress during the pre-rainy season and its health implications in Nigeria
NDIAYE  Aminata	La Variabilité Pluviométrique et ses Conséquences environnementales dans le Sahel rural Senegalais
Ndione J-A., Diop M., Mondet B., Diop C., Dacosta H.	Emergence de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift au Sénégal et variabilité intra-saisonnière de la pluviométrie
OLAYINKA K. O., NWAMADU U	EFFECTS OF PARTICULATE LEAD ON PUBLIC HEALTH OF URBAN RESIDENTS IN  IKEJA  AREA OF LAGOS METROPOLIS
Prokopy, Linda, Dev Niyogi, Souleymane Fall, Genevieve Maricle, Nivedita Niyogi, Roger Pielke Jr., Roger A. Pielke Sr.	Incorporating Societal Feedback in Assessing Water Resource Vulnerability due to Climate Variability

West African Monsoon and Climate (Continued)
Corti, S., F. Molteni and F. Kucharski	Interannual variability and predictability of the West African Monsoon circulation
Guillaume, Naklouma, Ousmane Ndiaye	Burkina Faso seasonal rainfall predictability : Sahelian or Guinean regimes
Moron, Vincent, Andy W. Robertson, M. Neil Ward, Ousmane Ndiaye	Analysis and downscaling of sub-seasonal variability of Senegal rainfall with weather classification
Ndiaye, Ibrahima, Ousmane Ndiaye and Amadou Gaye	Getting around poor GCM rainfall simulation for Senegalese seasonal forecasting: circulation alternative
NDIAYE, Ousmane , and Neil WARD	Using Tropical Atlantic Circulation to predict Sahel rainfall
Polo, I, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, E. Serrano-Mendoza	Precipitation and SST patterns related to WAM
Trzaska, Sylwia, Andrew Robertson, Pauline Dibi-Kangah	Simulation of subseasonal characteristics of rainfall in Central West Africa using a Hidden Markov Model